Norwegian registered unemployment was flat at 1.8 percent of the workforce in August, though seasonally adjusted numbers of jobless inched up, Norway’s Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV) said on Thursday.

The unadjusted rate was unchanged from July.

The NAV figures tend to be lower than jobless numbers issued by Statistics Norway since fewer people register for benefits than are considered out of work by the statistics agency.

Separately, Statistics Norway issued a new quarterly set of forecasts and said the economy had entered a “moderate slowdown” and that interest rates have peaked, which caused a slight weakening to the Norwegian crown.

******************************* NORWEGIAN UNEMPLOYMENT Aug 08 July 08 Aug 07

Unemployment (pct) 1.8 1.8 2.0

Unemployed 44,364 44,102 48,887 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FIGURES

Unemployed/training 50,632 50,402 54,052

Unemployed 40,166 40,021 44,423

NOTE - A Reuters survey of nine economists had found a median expectation that registered unemployment would stay unchanged at 1.8 percent in August. For the seasonally adjusted figures, which include people in job training schemes, forecasts by six economists gave a median estimate of 50,700.

- “The decline in unemployment has stopped, and demand for labour is lower than earlier this year,” NAV chief Tor Saglie said in a statement. “We reckon that unemployment will rise somewhat in the period ahead.”

MARKET REACTION:

- The Norwegian crown softened to 7.9310 per euro <EURNOK=> by 0845 GMT from 7.9220 just before the data.

COMMENTARY:

MAREN ROMSTAD, MACROECONOMIC ANALYST, DNB NOR MARKETS

“Unemployment is about unchanged, that is not surprising. It is bottoming out.

“Statistics Norway thinks, like we do, that the interest rate peak has been reached, and some are trading on that in the forex market. There is a little weakening of the crown.”

STEIN BRUUN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, SEB NORGE

“The NAV (jobless) figures were about as expected. The picture is that unemployment has bottomed out, but the labour market is still tight.”

ERIK BRUCE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, NORDEA MARKETS

“There is a little stronger labour market than Norges Bank has forecast. I believe that Norges Bank has thought that registered unemployment would rise somewhat. If anything the job labour market is surprising on the upside.

“August and September inflation will be decisive for whether Norges Bank raises rates in October. We think inflation will surprise on the upside, but if it comes down we must reevaluate whether there will be a rate increase.”

LINKS:

REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT DATA:

- The Labour and Welfare Organisation web page is at: http://www.nav.no

LABOUR FORCE SURVEY

- For more data, the Statistics Norway Web site is: http://www.ssb.no/english/

- The Labour Force statement is at: http://www.ssb.no/en/akumnd/

BACKGROUND: - Registered unemployment in Norway has fallen from a peak of 4.3 percent in January 2004 during an upturn in the oil-backed economy, which is nonetheless cooling off.

- Norway is the world’s fourth biggest oil exporter and Western Europe’s biggest gas exporter. Soaring prices for the country’s petroleum exports have helped spur a brisk four-year economic expansion that has driven down joblessness.

Source: http://www.afxnews.com

Random Posts