Thailand’s exports jumped in July, sustaining the recent strong trend, but oil-inflated imports pushed the country’s trade balance into a big monthly deficit, central bank data showed on Friday.
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KEY POINTS:
- July exports rose 43.9 percent from a year earlier, up from a 28.5 percent rise in June (Reuters poll forecast a 43.9 percent rise).
- July trade account switched to a $762 million deficit from a $926 million surplus (Reuters poll forecast: $1.0 billion deficit).
- July current account showed a $555 million deficit after a $722 million surplus in June (Reuters poll forecast: $850 million deficit).
- Imports rose 53.4 percent from a year earlier following a 31.5 percent rise in June (Reuters poll forecast: up 54.2 percent).
- Manufacturing production index rose 10.9 percent in July from a year earlier after a revised 11.2 percent in June (Reuters poll forecast: up 11.5 percent).
COMMENTARY:
PIMONWAN MAHUJCHARIYAWONG, ECONOMIST, KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTRE
“The overall figures were better than what we expected, with export and import growth accelerating from a year earlier.”
“Looking forward, a major concern is politics. We thought easing inflation and the government’s economic measures would help make for a better second half. The situation now is looking a bit more uncertain and surely it is an important factor to keep an eye on.”
LINKS:
- Full statement and data from the Bank of Thailand are available at http://www.bot.or.th/BOThomepage/DataBank/Econcond/pressrel/monthly/index_eng_i.asp
- For Bank of Thailand monthly economic data, 3000 Xtra users can click on <BOT40>, <BOT41> and <BOT42>
BACKGROUND
- Due to ballooning energy import costs and an expected slackening in exports to major markets, the central bank in July forecast a $1.5-3.5 billion trade deficit for this year, against a $12 billion surplus in 2007.
- The current account surplus was forecast to narrow to $1-4 billion in 2008 from $4-7 billion predicted in April.
- The central bank has raised its export growth projection for this year to 16-19 percent from 13.5-16.5 percent forecast in April.
- Customs data from the Commerce Ministry showed petroleum imports, which accounted for around 23.4 percent of total imports, surged 98.3 percent in July from a year earlier after a a 66.4 percent rise in June.
Source: http://www.afxnews.com
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